Probability

NCERT Class 11 Mathematics — Probability, Exercise 14.1. All 7 questions solved.

An event is a subset of the sample space $\mathrm S$, so every set operation from Chapter 1 carries over with a probabilistic reading:

Set language Event language
$\mathrm A \cup \mathrm B$ A or B occurs
$\mathrm A \cap \mathrm B$ A and B occur
$\mathrm A’$ A does not occur
$\mathrm A – \mathrm B$ A occurs but B does not
$\mathrm A \cap \mathrm B = \varphi$ A and B are mutually exclusive
$\mathrm A \cup \mathrm B = \mathrm S$ A and B are exhaustive

An event with exactly one outcome is simple; one with more than one is compound.

Key insight. “Mutually exclusive” and “exhaustive” are separate conditions and a set of events can satisfy either without the other. Mutually exclusive means the events cannot overlap; exhaustive means between them they cover everything. Question 5 asks for pairs and triples of each combination, which only makes sense once the two ideas are kept apart.

Question 1

A die is rolled. Let $\mathrm E$ be the event “die shows $4$” and $\mathrm F$ be the event “die shows an even number”. Are $\mathrm E$ and $\mathrm F$ mutually exclusive?

Solution. With $\mathrm S = \{1,2,3,4,5,6\}$:

$$\mathrm E = \{4\}, \qquad \mathrm F = \{2, 4, 6\}$$

$$\mathrm E \cap \mathrm F = \{4\} \ne \varphi$$

Since the intersection is non-empty, the events are not mutually exclusive. In fact $\mathrm E \subset \mathrm F$: whenever the die shows $4$ it necessarily shows an even number.

No — $\mathrm E \cap \mathrm F = \{4\} \ne \varphi$.

Question 2

A die is thrown. Describe the following events:

(i) $\mathrm A$: a number less than $7$   (ii) $\mathrm B$: a number greater than $7$ (iii) $\mathrm C$: a multiple of $3$   (iv) $\mathrm D$: a number less than $4$ (v) $\mathrm E$: an even number greater than $4$   (vi) $\mathrm F$: a number not less than $3$

Also find $\mathrm A \cup \mathrm B$, $\mathrm A \cap \mathrm B$, $\mathrm B \cup \mathrm C$, $\mathrm E \cap \mathrm F$, $\mathrm D \cap \mathrm E$, $\mathrm A – \mathrm C$, $\mathrm D – \mathrm E$, $\mathrm E \cap \mathrm F’$, $\mathrm F’$.

Solution. The sample space is $\mathrm S = \{1,2,3,4,5,6\}$.

(i) Every outcome is less than $7$, so $\mathrm A = \{1,2,3,4,5,6\} = \mathrm S$ — a sure event.

(ii) No outcome exceeds $7$, so $\mathrm B = \varphi$ — an impossible event.

(iii) $\mathrm C = \{3, 6\}$

(iv) $\mathrm D = \{1, 2, 3\}$

(v) Even numbers greater than $4$: only $6$, so $\mathrm E = \{6\}$.

(vi) “Not less than $3$” means $\ge 3$, so $\mathrm F = \{3, 4, 5, 6\}$.

Now the combinations:

$$\mathrm A \cup \mathrm B = \mathrm S \cup \varphi = \{1,2,3,4,5,6\}$$ $$\mathrm A \cap \mathrm B = \varphi$$ $$\mathrm B \cup \mathrm C = \varphi \cup \{3,6\} = \{3, 6\}$$ $$\mathrm E \cap \mathrm F = \{6\} \cap \{3,4,5,6\} = \{6\}$$ $$\mathrm D \cap \mathrm E = \{1,2,3\} \cap \{6\} = \varphi$$ $$\mathrm A – \mathrm C = \{1,2,3,4,5,6\} – \{3,6\} = \{1, 2, 4, 5\}$$ $$\mathrm D – \mathrm E = \{1,2,3\} – \{6\} = \{1, 2, 3\}$$ $$\mathrm F’ = \mathrm S – \mathrm F = \{1, 2\}$$ $$\mathrm E \cap \mathrm F’ = \{6\} \cap \{1,2\} = \varphi$$

(i) $\{1,2,3,4,5,6\}$   (ii) $\varphi$   (iii) $\{3,6\}$   (iv) $\{1,2,3\}$   (v) $\{6\}$   (vi) $\{3,4,5,6\}$

$\mathrm A \cup \mathrm B = \{1,2,3,4,5,6\}$,   $\mathrm A \cap \mathrm B = \varphi$,   $\mathrm B \cup \mathrm C = \{3,6\}$,

$\mathrm E \cap \mathrm F = \{6\}$,   $\mathrm D \cap \mathrm E = \varphi$,   $\mathrm A – \mathrm C = \{1,2,4,5\}$,

$\mathrm D – \mathrm E = \{1,2,3\}$,   $\mathrm E \cap \mathrm F’ = \varphi$,   $\mathrm F’ = \{1,2\}$

Question 3

An experiment involves rolling a pair of dice and recording the numbers that come up. Describe the following events:

$\mathrm A$: the sum is greater than $8$;   $\mathrm B$: $2$ occurs on either die; $\mathrm C$: the sum is at least $7$ and a multiple of $3$.

Which pairs of these events are mutually exclusive?

Solution. The sample space has $36$ ordered pairs.

$\mathrm A$ — sum greater than $8$, so the sum is $9$, $10$, $11$ or $12$:

$$\mathrm A = \{(3,6), (4,5), (5,4), (6,3), (4,6), (5,5), (6,4), (5,6), (6,5), (6,6)\}$$

$\mathrm B$ — a $2$ on either die. Take every pair with $2$ in the first place or the second, counting $(2,2)$ once:

$$\mathrm B = \{(1,2), (2,2), (3,2), (4,2), (5,2), (6,2), (2,1), (2,3), (2,4), (2,5), (2,6)\}$$

$\mathrm C$ — sum at least $7$ and a multiple of $3$. Multiples of $3$ that are at least $7$ are $9$ and $12$:

$$\mathrm C = \{(3,6), (6,3), (4,5), (5,4), (6,6)\}$$

Mutual exclusivity.

  • $\mathrm A \cap \mathrm B$: every element of $\mathrm A$ has both entries at least $3$, so none contains a $2$. Hence $\mathrm A \cap \mathrm B = \varphi$ — mutually exclusive.
  • $\mathrm B \cap \mathrm C$: the same argument applies to $\mathrm C$, all of whose entries are at least $3$. So $\mathrm B \cap \mathrm C = \varphi$ — mutually exclusive.
  • $\mathrm A \cap \mathrm C = \mathrm C \ne \varphi$ (every element of $\mathrm C$ has sum $9$ or $12$, both greater than $8$), so these are not mutually exclusive. Indeed $\mathrm C \subset \mathrm A$.

$\mathrm A$ and $\mathrm B$ are mutually exclusive; $\mathrm B$ and $\mathrm C$ are mutually exclusive. $\mathrm A$ and $\mathrm C$ are not.

Question 4

Three coins are tossed once. Let $\mathrm A$ denote the event “three heads show”, $\mathrm B$ “two heads and one tail show”, $\mathrm C$ “three tails show” and $\mathrm D$ “a head shows on the first coin”. Which events are

(i) mutually exclusive?   (ii) simple?   (iii) compound?

Solution. The sample space is

$$\mathrm S = \{\mathrm{HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, HTT, THT, TTH, TTT}\}$$

$$\mathrm A = \{\mathrm{HHH}\}, \quad \mathrm B = \{\mathrm{HHT, HTH, THH}\}, \quad \mathrm C = \{\mathrm{TTT}\}$$

$$\mathrm D = \{\mathrm{HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT}\}$$

(i) Mutually exclusive pairs. Check each of the six pairs:

  • $\mathrm A \cap \mathrm B = \varphi$ ✓
  • $\mathrm A \cap \mathrm C = \varphi$ ✓
  • $\mathrm B \cap \mathrm C = \varphi$ ✓
  • $\mathrm C \cap \mathrm D = \varphi$ ✓
  • $\mathrm A \cap \mathrm D = \{\mathrm{HHH}\} \ne \varphi$ ✗
  • $\mathrm B \cap \mathrm D = \{\mathrm{HHT, HTH}\} \ne \varphi$ ✗

(ii) Simple events contain exactly one outcome: $\mathrm A$ and $\mathrm C$.

(iii) Compound events contain more than one: $\mathrm B$ and $\mathrm D$.

(i) $\mathrm A$ and $\mathrm B$; $\mathrm A$ and $\mathrm C$; $\mathrm B$ and $\mathrm C$; $\mathrm C$ and $\mathrm D$

(ii) $\mathrm A$ and $\mathrm C$    (iii) $\mathrm B$ and $\mathrm D$

Question 5

Three coins are tossed. Describe

(i) two events which are mutually exclusive; (ii) three events which are mutually exclusive and exhaustive; (iii) two events which are not mutually exclusive; (iv) two events which are mutually exclusive but not exhaustive; (v) three events which are mutually exclusive but not exhaustive.

Solution. The sample space is the eight outcomes listed in question 4. More than one answer is correct in each part; the following are the simplest.

(i) “Getting at least two heads” $= \{\mathrm{HHH, HHT, HTH, THH}\}$ and “getting at least two tails” $= \{\mathrm{TTT, TTH, THT, HTT}\}$. These cannot both happen, since three coins cannot give two heads and two tails.

(ii) Partition by the number of heads, grouping the top two together:

  • “Getting no heads” $= \{\mathrm{TTT}\}$
  • “Getting exactly one head” $= \{\mathrm{HTT, THT, TTH}\}$
  • “Getting at least two heads” $= \{\mathrm{HHT, HTH, THH, HHH}\}$

They are pairwise disjoint and their union is all eight outcomes, so they are mutually exclusive and exhaustive.

(iii) “Getting at most two tails” and “getting exactly two tails” overlap — the second is contained in the first.

(iv) “Getting exactly one head” and “getting exactly two heads” are disjoint, but together they miss $\mathrm{HHH}$ and $\mathrm{TTT}$, so they are not exhaustive.

(v) “Getting exactly one tail”, “getting exactly two tails” and “getting exactly three tails” are pairwise disjoint, but they miss $\mathrm{HHH}$ (no tails), so they are not exhaustive.

(i) “At least two heads” and “at least two tails”

(ii) “No heads”, “exactly one head”, “at least two heads”

(iii) “At most two tails” and “exactly two tails”

(iv) “Exactly one head” and “exactly two heads”

(v) “Exactly one tail”, “exactly two tails”, “exactly three tails”

(Other answers are equally valid.)

Question 6

Two dice are thrown. The events $\mathrm A$, $\mathrm B$ and $\mathrm C$ are as follows:

$\mathrm A$: getting an even number on the first die. $\mathrm B$: getting an odd number on the first die. $\mathrm C$: getting the sum of the numbers on the dice $\le 5$.

Describe the events (i) $\mathrm A’$ (ii) not $\mathrm B$ (iii) $\mathrm A$ or $\mathrm B$ (iv) $\mathrm A$ and $\mathrm B$ (v) $\mathrm A$ but not $\mathrm C$ (vi) $\mathrm B$ or $\mathrm C$ (vii) $\mathrm B$ and $\mathrm C$ (viii) $\mathrm A \cap \mathrm B’ \cap \mathrm C’$.

Solution. The first die is either even or odd, never both and always one, so $\mathrm A$ and $\mathrm B$ partition the sample space — that single observation answers the first four parts.

$$\mathrm A = \{(2,y), (4,y), (6,y) : y = 1,\ldots,6\} \quad (18 \text{ outcomes})$$ $$\mathrm B = \{(1,y), (3,y), (5,y) : y = 1,\ldots,6\} \quad (18 \text{ outcomes})$$ $$\mathrm C = \{(1,1),(1,2),(1,3),(1,4),(2,1),(2,2),(2,3),(3,1),(3,2),(4,1)\}$$

(i) $\mathrm A’ = \mathrm B$ — the complement of “even first” is “odd first”.

(ii) not $\mathrm B = \mathrm B’ = \mathrm A$.

(iii) $\mathrm A \cup \mathrm B = \mathrm S$, all $36$ outcomes.

(iv) $\mathrm A \cap \mathrm B = \varphi$.

(v) $\mathrm A – \mathrm C$: take $\mathrm A$’s eighteen outcomes and drop those with sum at most $5$, namely $(2,1)$, $(2,2)$, $(2,3)$ and $(4,1)$:

$$\{(2,4),(2,5),(2,6),(4,2),(4,3),(4,4),(4,5),(4,6),(6,1),(6,2),(6,3),(6,4),(6,5),(6,6)\}$$

(vi) $\mathrm B \cup \mathrm C$: all eighteen of $\mathrm B$, plus the members of $\mathrm C$ with an even first entry — $(2,1), (2,2), (2,3), (4,1)$:

$$\{(1,1),\ldots,(1,6),(3,1),\ldots,(3,6),(5,1),\ldots,(5,6),(2,1),(2,2),(2,3),(4,1)\}$$

(vii) $\mathrm B \cap \mathrm C$: members of $\mathrm C$ with odd first entry:

$$\{(1,1),(1,2),(1,3),(1,4),(3,1),(3,2)\}$$

(viii) Since $\mathrm B’ = \mathrm A$, we have $\mathrm A \cap \mathrm B’ \cap \mathrm C’ = \mathrm A \cap \mathrm C’ = \mathrm A – \mathrm C$ — exactly the answer to part (v).

(i) $\mathrm A’ = \mathrm B$   (ii) $\mathrm B’ = \mathrm A$   (iii) $\mathrm A \cup \mathrm B = \mathrm S$   (iv) $\mathrm A \cap \mathrm B = \varphi$

(v) and (viii) are the same set: $\{(2,4),(2,5),(2,6),(4,2),(4,3),(4,4),(4,5),(4,6),(6,1),(6,2),(6,3),(6,4),(6,5),(6,6)\}$

(vi) $\mathrm B$ together with $(2,1),(2,2),(2,3),(4,1)$

(vii) $\{(1,1),(1,2),(1,3),(1,4),(3,1),(3,2)\}$

Question 7

Refer to question 6 above. State true or false, giving a reason:

(i) $\mathrm A$ and $\mathrm B$ are mutually exclusive (ii) $\mathrm A$ and $\mathrm B$ are mutually exclusive and exhaustive (iii) $\mathrm A = \mathrm B’$ (iv) $\mathrm A$ and $\mathrm C$ are mutually exclusive (v) $\mathrm A$ and $\mathrm B’$ are mutually exclusive (vi) $\mathrm A’$, $\mathrm B’$, $\mathrm C$ are mutually exclusive and exhaustive

Solution.

(i) True. The first die cannot be both even and odd, so $\mathrm A \cap \mathrm B = \varphi$.

(ii) True. In addition to (i), every outcome has a first die that is even or odd, so $\mathrm A \cup \mathrm B = \mathrm S$.

(iii) True. Given (i) and (ii), $\mathrm B$ is precisely the complement of $\mathrm A$.

(iv) False. $\mathrm A \cap \mathrm C = \{(2,1),(2,2),(2,3),(4,1)\} \ne \varphi$ — an even first die can still give a small sum.

(v) False. $\mathrm B’ = \mathrm A$, so $\mathrm A \cap \mathrm B’ = \mathrm A \cap \mathrm A = \mathrm A \ne \varphi$. An event is never mutually exclusive with itself unless it is impossible.

(vi) False. $\mathrm A’ = \mathrm B$ and $\mathrm B’ = \mathrm A$, and although these two are disjoint, $\mathrm A’ \cap \mathrm C = \mathrm B \cap \mathrm C \ne \varphi$ by question 6(vii). So the three are not pairwise disjoint.

(i) True   (ii) True   (iii) True   (iv) False   (v) False   (vi) False

Common mistakes

  • Question 1, calling the events mutually exclusive because $\mathrm E$ is smaller. Containment is the opposite of exclusion: $\mathrm E \subset \mathrm F$ means they overlap as much as possible.
  • Question 2(ii), writing $\{7, 8, \ldots\}$. A die shows only $1$ to $6$, so “greater than $7$” is impossible and the event is $\varphi$.
  • Question 2(vi), reading “not less than $3$” as “less than $3$”. It means $\ge 3$, so the event is $\{3,4,5,6\}$ and its complement is $\{1,2\}$.
  • Question 3, listing $\mathrm B$ with $(2,2)$ twice. It qualifies under both “$2$ on the first” and “$2$ on the second”, but a set lists it once — giving $11$ outcomes, not $12$.
  • Question 3, reading $\mathrm C$ as “at least $7$ or a multiple of $3$”. Both conditions must hold, so the sums are $9$ and $12$ only.
  • Question 4, calling $\mathrm A$ and $\mathrm D$ mutually exclusive. $\mathrm{HHH}$ satisfies both, so they overlap.
  • Question 7(v), taking $\mathrm B’$ as something new. $\mathrm B’ = \mathrm A$, so the claim reduces to “$\mathrm A$ is mutually exclusive with itself”, which is false for any non-impossible event.
  • Confusing mutually exclusive with exhaustive. In question 5, parts (iv) and (v) are exclusive without being exhaustive — the distinction is the whole point of those parts.

Practise next

  • Exercise 14.2 — the axiomatic approach, where probabilities are attached to the events described here.
  • Exercise 1.4 — worth revisiting for union, intersection and difference, since every event operation in this exercise is a set operation renamed.
Keep track of what you have finished — create a free account.

Doubts are answered by Shiwam, usually within a day. Ask about this question specifically — a general question about the chapter is better asked in class.

Ask your doubt

Stuck on this question? Ask Shiwam directly.

A free account lets you post a doubt on any question, keep track of the exercises you have finished, and come back to the answer later.

Create a free accountI already have one